Drivers of Agricultural Commodity Market Volatility and Food Supply Chain Resilience: A Systematic Review

<ns5:p>Background Global agricultural commodity markets face an unprecedented convergence of geopolitical conflicts, trade policy uncertainty, and climate risks that threaten food price stability, agri-food supply chain continuity, and global food security. Comprehensive synthesis of how these shocks jointly affect agricultural markets and food systems remains limited. Methods Following PRISMA 2020 guidelines, this systematic review synthesizes 32 peer-reviewed articles from Scopus published between 2010 and 2026. Thematic synthesis integrated quantitative and qualitative evidence across agricultural commodity price dynamics, volatility spillovers, geopolitical shocks, trade policy uncertainty, climate risks, and agri-food supply chain resilience. Certainty of evidence was assessed using adapted GRADE/CERQual, and reporting bias was evaluated through systematic assessment of selective reporting, publication bias, and geographic coverage. Results Geopolitical shocks generate significant heterogeneous effects on agricultural commodities. The Russia-Ukraine war increased wheat prices by approximately 2 percent, while crude oil remained elevated at 15.3 percent above pre-invasion levels for five months, with direct implications for food production costs. Trade policy uncertainty produces delayed (two weeks) but persistent (over six months) spillovers to agri-food supply chains. Climate physical risks generate negative spillovers to agricultural productivity, while transition risks produce positive spillovers through carbon markets. Energy markets function as the primary transmission channel to food prices. Agri-food supply chain resilience requires adaptability, agility, collaboration, and risk-aware culture as foundational capabilities. Conclusions This review provides the first integrated synthesis of agricultural commodity market responses to geopolitical, policy, and climate shocks. It advances connectedness theory in agricultural economics, extends social-ecological resilience to agri-food supply chains, and offers evidence-based policy recommendations for food security enhancement, early warning systems for food price volatility, supply diversification, and integrated climate risk management in agricultural systems. These findings directly support Sustainable Development Goal 2 (Zero Hunger) and Goal 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production).</ns5:p>