Using 50 years of monthly return data for the 1,000 largest US equities, we explore the relationships among stock-picking, portfolio formation using popular smart-beta methods, and performance. We find a strong and intuitively satisfying relationship between different portfolio-construction methods and stock-picking skill. This leads to the important conclusion that investment managers should consider both the choice of capital allocation methods and their ability to select stocks. Poor stock-picking skill may be partly offset by careful selection of smart beta portfolio construction methods, especially those that exploit low and stable correlations. Conversely, the effectiveness of stock-picking depends critically on the chosen allocation framework. Our results underscore that correlation structures, rather than return forecasts, are the dominant driver of portfolio efficiency; a finding with direct implications for smart beta design and active management.
Roy et al. (Fri,) studied this question.