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July 26, 2026International Journal of Forest Engineering

Economic risk modeling in charcoal road transportation: a case study from Brazil

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Authors

LFLuís Carlos FreitasKCKemele Cristina CoelhoMSMárcio Lopes da Silva

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Overview

Randomized trial assesses economic risks of charcoal transportation in Brazil, suggesting viability concerns.

Key Points

  • This study aims to evaluate the economic risks associated with charcoal road transport, focusing on costs and revenue dynamics.
  • Conducted a case study in Encruzilhada city, Bahia, Brazil, assessing an 800 km transport radius.
  • Analyzed maintenance costs, production costs, and identified the break-even point for transport viability.
  • Performed risk analysis using variables like vehicle operating costs, interest rates, and operational cycle time.
  • Average production cost increased over time; maintenance costs rose from 15.88% to 24.97% of vehicle costs by year five.
  • Identified that transport became economically unfeasible after the second year post-operation.
  • Risk analysis indicated a 41.5% chance that production costs would exceed revenue per ton transported.

Cite This Study

Freitas et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a65a84ed3aea3239cd78c1bhttps://doi.org/10.1080/14942119.2026.2697634
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