Simulation and Prediction of the Potential Distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda Under Current and Three Future Scenarios Based on the Biomod2 Model Under Global Climate Change
Randomized trial simulates potential distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda, indicating significant change with climate scenarios.
Key Points
This study aims to assess the potential distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda under current and future climate scenarios using an ensemble modeling approach.
Used biomod2 platform to integrate six models: XGBOOST, Maxnet, Maxent, MARS, GBM, and GLM.
Simulated species distribution under current conditions and three future climate scenarios.
Analyzed environmental factors influencing the distribution and their trends.
Current suitable area for Spodoptera frugiperda is approximately 2026.05 × 10^4 km2, concentrated in East Asia and central North America.
Under SSP5-8.5 scenario, the suitable area increases by 91.8%, indicating pronounced expansion toward higher latitudes.
Expansion trend worsens with increased carbon emissions; slight area reduction possible under conservative SSP1-2.6 scenario.