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August 16, 2026InsectsOpen Access

Effects of Different Spatial Extents of Occurrence Data on Biomod2-Based Species Distribution Modeling and Prediction: A Case Study of the Potential Distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda in China

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Authors

JNJunke NanMYMaofa YangZHZhipeng He

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Overview

Ecological modeling reveals global occurrence data enhances species distribution predictions for Spodoptera frugiperda, highlighting the risk of underestimating pest invasion from regional datasets.

Key Points

  • To evaluate how global versus regional occurrence data extents influence Biomod2 ensemble species distribution models and climate-driven invasion projections for Spodoptera frugiperda.
  • Calibrated ensemble SDMs using the Biomod2 platform with climatic, topographic, and vegetation variables across two occurrence extents: global (1,763 records) and China-specific (946 records).
  • Projected habitat suitability patterns and centroid shifts under current climate conditions and future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5).
  • The global model demonstrated superior predictive performance (TSS = 0.851, ROC = 0.977) compared to the China-specific model (TSS = 0.690, ROC = 0.905).
  • Both models identified southern China and the Huang-Huai Plain as core suitable habitats, with high-emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5) driving consistent northwestward centroid shifts and habitat expansion into northern and western China.

Cite This Study

Nan et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a817a11f2fb91fc834ada20https://doi.org/10.3390/insects17080843
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