Deconstructing the Ferguson effect: a multilevel mediation analysis of public scrutiny, de-policing, and crime

Joel A. Capellan*a, Rachel Lautenschlagerb & Jason R. Silvaca Law & Justice Studies, Rowan University, Glassboro, NJ, USAb Department of Sociology, The University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USAc Department of Sociology and Criminal Justice, William Paterson University, Wayne, NJ, USAJoel A. Capellan is an assistant professor in the Law and Justice Studies department at Rowan University. Capellan specializes in statistics and spatial analysis. He has conducted and published research on state-sponsored repression, segregation, lone wolf terrorism, policing bias, and criminological theories. Currently, he is devoting most of his attention to the study of mass public shootings.Rachel Lautenschlager is a doctoral candidate in sociology concentrating in the areas of criminology and race and ethnic relations. Her research explores how law enforcement and other components of the criminal justice system vary across neighborhoods, and the ways that this results in differential outcomes across racial and ethnic groups.Jason R. Silva is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Sociology and Criminal Justice at William Paterson University. His research examines media and crime, mass shootings, school violence, and terrorism. Recent publications have appeared in Aggression and Violent Behavior, Criminal Justice Policy Review, International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, and Victims & Offenders.CONTACT Joel A. Capellan capellan@rowan.eduABSTRACTProponents of the ‘Ferguson effect’ suggest de-policing – stemming from increased public scrutiny over the death of Michael Brown – is responsible for the recent surge in crime across the United States. While this phenomenon has been the subject of widespread speculation, the hypothesized mechanism through which public scrutiny of police impacts crime have remained unexplored. This study attempts to fill the gap by deconstructing the effects of public scrutiny on crime trends in New York City police precincts over a two-year period (2014–2015). Findings indicate partial support for the Ferguson effect. While public scrutiny predicted variations in de-policing, the results show de-policing did not predict increases in crime. Interestingly, this study finds public scrutiny had a significant positive direct effect on crime rates, suggesting it increased crime through alternative causal processes. These findings have important theoretical and policy implications for understanding the causes and prevention of crime.