Do war-on-crime declarations combat violent crime in Taiwan? An interrupted time-series analysis

Governments around the world often use declarations of determination as a public safety strategy to combat crime. Typically, these declarations encompass short-term local policing programs without permanent structural changes, ensuring flexibility and cost-effectiveness. Based on perceptual deterrence theory, such declarations have the potential to deter criminal behavior by heightening an offender’s perception of risk through policy publicity and intensified law enforcement. Drawing on a case from Taiwan, this study evaluates the impact of the 2014 war-on-crime declaration in Taichung City. We utilized interrupted time-series methods to examine the effects of the declaration on monthly violent crime rates between 2011 and 2017. The results do not support the hypothesis that the declaration had any significant impact on violent crime rates. Instead, significant autocorrelation in violent crime rates was found, suggesting the existence of consistent underlying causes of violent crime that were not addressed by the declaration. Potential factors contributing to these findings are discussed.