Multivariable Prediction of Renal Insufficiency Developing After Cardiac Surgery

BACKGROUND: Renal insufficiency after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery is associated with increased short-term and long-term mortality. We hypothesized that preoperative patient characteristics could be used to predict the patient-specific risk of developing postoperative renal insufficiency. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were prospectively collected on 11,301 patients in northern New England who underwent isolated CABG surgery between 2001 and 2005. Based on National Kidney Foundation definitions, moderate renal insufficiency was defined as a GFR 12,000, prior CABG, congestive heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, diabetes, hypertension, and preoperative intraaortic balloon pump. The predictive model was significant with chi2 150.8, probability value <0.0001. The model discriminated well, ROC 0.72 (95%CI: 0.68 to 0.75). The model was well calibrated according to the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a robust prediction rule to assist clinicians in identifying patients with normal, or near normal, preoperative renal function who are at high risk of developing severe renal insufficiency. Physicians may be able to take steps to limit this adverse outcome and its associated increase in morbidity and mortality.