South–South trade or structural dependency? Lessons from AFCFTA in the global political economy

The rise of South–South cooperation has been widely celebrated as a pathway toward economic autonomy and development for countries in the Global South. In Africa, the Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) represents a landmark initiative aims at deepening intra-African trade and reducing dependence on external markets. However, questions remain as to whether such initiatives genuinely transform structural inequalities or merely reproduce existing patterns of dependency within a new framework. This paper critically examines AfCFTA through the lens of dependency theory, new regionalism, and global value chain analysis. It argues that while AfCFTA offers significant opportunities for economic integration and industrialization, its transformative potential remains constrained by structural asymmetries, weak institutional capacity, and Africa's embeddedness in global production networks. The study concludes that without deliberate policy interventions and institutional strengthening, South–South trade may risk reinforcing, rather than overcoming, structural dependency.