Probability‐Based Inference in a Domain of Proportional Reasoning Tasks

Educators and psychologists are increasingly interested in modeling the processes and knowledge structures by which people learn and solve problems. Meaningful progress has been mode in developing cognitive models in several domains and in devising observational settings that provide clues about subjects' cognition from this perspective. Less attention has been paid to drawing inferences or making decisions with such data, even though observations provide only imperfect information about cognition, and complex interrelationships can exist among observations and theoretical variables. This article discusses the use o f probability‐based reasoning to explicate hypothesized and empirical relationships and to structure inference in this context. Ideas are illustrated with an example concerning proportional reasoning.