Key result
Computational modeling of foot-and-mouth disease virus dynamics in Cameroon suggests that asymptomatic carriers, rather than mobile herds, are a primary driver of disease endemicity.
Why the study?
Understanding of drivers of foot and mouth disease virus persistence in areas where it is endemic was lacking.
Computational modeling suggests asymptomatic carriers drive foot-and-mouth disease endemicity in Cameroon.
Supports targeting asymptomatic carriers for FMDV control in endemic regions; leaves open other persistence drivers in sub-Saharan pastoral systems.
Foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) is an RNA virus that infects cloven-hoofed animals, often produces either epidemic or endemic conditions, and negatively affects agricultural economies worldwide. FMDV epidemic dynamics have been extensively studied, but understanding of drivers of disease persistence in areas in which FMDV is endemic, such as most of sub-Saharan Africa, is lacking. We present a spatial stochastic model of disease dynamics that incorporates a spatial transmission kernel in a modified Gillespie algorithm, and use it to evaluate two hypothesized drivers of endemicity: asymptomatic carriers and the movement of mobile herds. The model is parameterized using data from the pastoral systems in the Far North Region of Cameroon. Our computational study provides evidence in support of the hypothesis that asymptomatic carriers, but not mobile herds, are a driver of endemicity.
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Schnell et al. (2019) studied Foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV). Asymptomatic carriers and movement of mobile herds was evaluated on Drivers of endemicity. Computational modeling of foot-and-mouth disease virus dynamics in Cameroon suggests that asymptomatic carriers, rather than mobile herds, are a primary driver of disease endemicity.
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