Has World War III started? Geopolitical preferences, conspiratorial thinking and individual threat perceptions of a global conflict in Slovakia

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the resulting instability has led to increased public perceptions of the threat of the conflict escalating into a global war. While existing research links threat perceptions to psychological well-being and political attitudes, less is known about their (geo)political causes. How do geopolitics, cues and conspiratorial thinking influence individual assessments of the risk of a global conflict? This study aims to answer this research question by analysing a nationally representative survey conducted in Slovakia in early May 2024. Several hypotheses are tested regarding how geopolitics, elite cues and conspiratorial thinking could influence the public's belief that World War III has started or is about to begin. The findings show that scoring higher on a scale of Western-Russian geopolitical orientations increases the likelihood of believing that WWIII has already begun or is about to commence. Higher levels of trust in the prime minister, a proxy for elite cues, reduce the threat perception. Conspiratorial thinking is positively correlated with threat perceptions. Furthermore, an interaction model reveals that conspiratorial beliefs increase threat perceptions for all but the most pro-Russian respondents.