Logistic early warning scores to predict death, cardiac arrest or unplanned intensive care unit re‐admission after cardiac surgery

Figures

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  Figure 1. Left – distribution of the five physiological variables in all measurements (dark) and in the measurements with serious adverse events (light)/Right: black curves represent predicted probability of the physiological variable given the other predictors being controlled for logistic EWS. Horizontal red lines represent individual parameter dividing bins used by NEWS (right axis). Note that the scales of figures on both sides are different to show patterns of interest.

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  Figure 2. Black curves represent predicted probability of the physiological variable given the other predictors being controlled for logistic Early Warning Score (EWS). Horizontal red lines represent individual parameter dividing bins used by National EWS (NEWS, right axis).

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  Figure 3. ROC curves for logistic early warning score (EWS) and national early warning score (NEWS) for comparison when observations are limited to the preceding 24 h. The red solid line represents NEWS; the black dashed line represents logistic EWS.

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  Figure 4. Comparison of area under the curve among methods. Using the first 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% and 90% of each patient's data on x‐axis for model fitting and validation every next 10% of data. The colours of the lines represent different methods: blue (for multilevel logistic regression (MLR)), red (for logistic early warning score), green (for national early warning score); the MLR model utilises patient‐identity information and temporal evolution of scoring to make predictions.