Statistical Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Motion over the Southwest Indian Ocean

The derivation of a system of regression equations for the prediction of tropical cyclone motion over the Southwest Indian Ocean is described. The equations use the same predictors that are typically used as storm selection criteria by analog models. In this sense, the prediction model simulates an analog forecast. To complete the simulation, a method is described whereby the prediction errors (residuals) of the development data are used to construct equi-probability ellipses similar to those used by analog models. Testing the prediction equations on three years of independent data for the years 1970, 1971 and 1972 indicates a forecast accuracy closely approximating that realized by a similar system of prediction equations in operational use in the Atlantic.