The dynamics of price discovery between the U.S. and Chinese soybean market: a wavelet approach to understanding the effects of Sino-US trade conflict and COVID-19 pandemic

During geopolitical crises, the price stability of agricultural commodities is critical for national security. Understanding the dynamics of pricing power between the United States and China and how it varies over time can help smaller nations navigate unpredictable moments. This study uses a unified framework and wavelet approach to examine soybean price discovery in United States and China from the standpoints of price interdependence and information flows. We begin by illustrating the integrated link between the soybean futures markets in United States and China, which includes multiple structural breaks. The pricing difference between the two nations acts as the primary information spillover route for their integrated relationship. Furthermore, we show that the direction and degree of information spillover change dramatically in proportion to the strength of United States–Chinese soybean interaction. Finally, we find that China's recent retaliatory tax on U.S. soybeans gave the Chinese market a more powerful position in soybean futures price discovery. After the first-stage trade deal was reached, and during the epidemic phase of the coronavirus pandemic, the pricing power of United States soybean market showed no signs of full recovery.