Statistical Inference in Contextual Analysis

Political science research in a number of areas is concerned with the effects of contextual explanatory variables. Unfortunately, most past contextual research is seriously flawed by problems of statistical inference that can produce false and misleading results. This paper attempts to equip contextual researchers with a necessary understanding of the main statistical issues involved in contextual analysis. After outlining the basic problems of statistical inference, the paper provides an empirical example that shows strong contextual effects.