Opinion Polls: Right or Wrong? A Lesson in Social Research

Points out that there were 50 nationally published political polls during the British 1992 election campaign period – 39 of which, converted into seats, would have given a hung Parliament, eight of which suggested an outright win for Labour, and three of which gave the Conservatives a victory. Addresses why so many opinion polls apparently got it wrong, and takes the reader through some of the reasons for the discrepancy, such as the nature of opinions, sampling considerations, non‐response, and the effect of opinion poll results themselves. Tries to inform the uninformed reader in order that the results of future opinion polls might be evaluated more clearly.