Barriers to the sustained participation intention of residents in voluntary personal carbon trading: lessons from China’s carbon generalized system of preferences

The Chinese government initiated the Carbon Generalized System of Preferences (CGSP) to enhance traditional personal carbon trading (PCT) by fostering social equity and refining household carbon accounting. However, despite the CGSP’s potential, user attrition hinders its global replication. This research uses grounded theory to identify eight barriers to long-term participation and conducts adversarial interpretive structural modeling to highlight fundamental barriers, such as inadequate government support and a weak internal environmental locus of control. Fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis also uncovers combinations of barriers that, when addressed, are sufficient to ensure continued participation without necessitating the concurrent resolution of all challenges. As one of the few large-scale voluntary PCT implementations, insights from the CGSP help optimize its framework and promote global PCT adoption. Unlike previous studies focusing on drivers with regression methods, this research contributes to PCT literature by emphasizing barriers and their configurations.