Municipal solid waste gasification with alcohol-to-jet upgrading produces low-carbon aviation fuel at fossil-competitive costs

Introduction Municipal solid waste is an abundant feedstock with established collection infrastructure and negative or near-zero acquisition costs. This study quantifies the techno-economic and environmental performance of a gasification and alcohol-to-jet pathway that converts 2,000 tonnes per day of municipal solid waste into sustainable aviation fuel. Methods Process modeling was conducted in BioSTEAM v2.44.3. Techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment were performed, including Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis incorporating syngas H 2 /CO variability, catalyst lifetime, MSW moisture, plastic fraction, and financial parameters. Results The process yields 9.3 gallons of fuel per tonne of incoming waste, with aluminum, iron, and propanol recovered as co-products. The minimum fuel-selling price (MFSP) ranges from $1.25 to $3.68 per gallon depending on tipping-fee credits and co-product revenues, with the lower bound within the 2019–2024 petroleum jet fuel range of $2.00–$3.50 per gallon. Cradle-to-gate global warming potential is 33.67 g CO 2 -eq/MJ, representing a 63% reduction relative to conventional jet fuel. Natural gas and electricity account for 54% of total emissions, while avoided landfill methane and metal recovery provide 5.8 g CO 2 -eq/MJ in credits. Monte Carlo analysis yields a 90% confidence interval of –$0.12 to $2.61/gal for MFSP and 28.4–42.8 g CO 2 -eq/MJ for GWP. Implications Economic performance is most sensitive to internal rate of return and aluminum price, while environmental performance is primarily driven by electricity sourcing and plastic composition. Overall, the pathway demonstrates robust climate benefits and competitive cost potential across uncertainty ranges.