Use of prediction models to forecast and analyse airborne spread during the foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Brittany, Jersey and the Isle of Wight in 1981

Between March 4 and 26, 1981 the French veterinary authorities reported a series of 14 outbreaks of disease due to type O foot-and-mouth (FMD) virus, 13 in Brittany and one in Normandy. The United Kingdom reported FMD type O in Jersey on March 19 and in the Isle of Wight on March 22. The field and laboratory investigations on the farm in the Isle of Wight are outlined. The way in which short and long range numerical models were used to forecast the airborne spread of FMD from Brittany to the UK and then to assess the risk of further airborne spread within the UK is described.