A class analysis of electoral support in New Zealand, 1996–2023

Electoral studies during the 1960s found a strong correlation between occupation and support for the two major political parties in New Zealand. While the majority of manual (‘blue collar’) workers voted Labour, those in non-manual occupations were predominantly National voters. These findings confirmed partisan stereotypes in the second half of the twentieth century. In subsequent decades, however, electoral volatility and declining political participation undermined the class-party alignment. This article re-evaluates the evidence for class voting in New Zealand under proportional representation using data from the New Zealand Election Study (1996–2023) and finds that occupation remains a significant predictor of whether a person votes Labour or National. These findings suggest that enduring class appeal may have provided a buffer against electoral collapse for Labour, while National’s electoral dominance under John Key coincided with stronger support from the middle-classes.