Key result
The annual rupture probability of abdominal aortic aneurysms increases significantly with size, reaching 32.4% in men and 64.8% in women at 7.5 cm, and near-certainty at 10.0 cm.
Why the study?
Determining the rupture risk of large abdominal aortic aneurysms through clinical studies remains elusive.
What is the estimated annual rupture risk of large abdominal aortic aneurysms stratified by size and sex?
What is the estimated annual rupture risk of large abdominal aortic aneurysms stratified by size and sex?
Odds Ratio: 5.26 (95% CI 4.42–6.27)
Computational modeling of existing literature suggests that the annual rupture risk of large abdominal aortic aneurysms is extremely high, particularly in women and at sizes >7.0 cm, reaching near-certainty at 10.0 cm.
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Literature-derived rupture risks for large AAAs warrant cautious use; leaves open prospective validation before guiding decisions.
Minami et al. (2025) studied Large Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms (AAA). 1-cm increase in aneurysm size vs. Smaller aneurysm size was evaluated on Annual rupture probability per 1-cm size increase in men (OR 5.26, 95% CI 4.42-6.27). The annual rupture probability of abdominal aortic aneurysms increases significantly with size, reaching 32.4% in men and 64.8% in women at 7.5 cm, and near-certainty at 10.0 cm.
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