Key result
A prediction model combining morphological and hemodynamic parameters accurately predicted rupture risk in abdominal aortic aneurysms ≥ 50 mm (AUC = 0.978).
Why the study?
Diameter is the primary criterion for abdominal aortic aneurysm rupture risk, but not all exceeding threshold rupture, highlighting the need for additional indicators.
Does a prediction model combining morphological and hemodynamic parameters accurately predict rupture in abdominal aortic aneurysms ≥ 50 mm?
Observational (n=82)
Does a prediction model combining morphological and hemodynamic parameters accurately predict rupture in abdominal aortic aneurysms ≥ 50 mm?
Effect estimate: AUC 0.978
Combining morphological and hemodynamic parameters like wall shear stress and oscillatory shear index yields a highly accurate model for predicting rupture in abdominal aortic aneurysms ≥ 50 mm.
A diameter of 50 or 55 mm is the primary clinical criterion for assessing abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture risk. However, although larger diameters may induce higher rupture risk, not all AAAs exceeding intervention threshold will rupture, highlighting the need for indicators besides diameter to help rupture prediction and treatment of AAA ≥ 50 mm. The study aims to combine computation, experiment, and statistics to establish rupture prediction models for AAAs ≥ 50 mm and explore the optimal predictors of AAA rupture with different diameters by anatomical and hemodynamic characteristics. Through numerical simulation and in vitro experiment, morphological and hemodynamic parameters were obtained from 82 AAAs (41 ruptured) ≥ 50 mm. The results of significance test and logistic regression indicate that low time-averaged wall shear stress (TAWSS) of AAA and maximum diameter of common iliac artery, and high oscillatory shear index (OSI) of AAA, TAWSS of iliac artery and tortuosity of abdominal aorta increase rupture risk of AAA ≥ 50 mm. The prediction model combining these variables was established with high accuracy (area under curve = 0.978). Furthermore, univariable analyses for AAAs of different diameters imply the OSI is a risk factor for AAA rupture of 50–65 mm, while higher TAWSS decreases the risk of AAA rupture of 65–80 and ≥ 80 mm. The findings may contribute to accurate rupture prediction and personalized management of AAAs ≥ 50 mm and with different diameters, and further demonstrate potential value and application prospects of combining morphology and hemodynamics in clinical practice.
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Che et al. (2025) conducted an observational in Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) ≥ 50 mm (n=82). Morphological and hemodynamic parameters was evaluated on AAA rupture prediction (AUC 0.978). A prediction model combining morphological and hemodynamic parameters accurately predicted rupture risk in abdominal aortic aneurysms ≥ 50 mm (AUC = 0.978).
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