Validation of the Emory Risk Score in the Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation Population: A Canadian Perspective

Background Permanent pacemaker (PPM) implantation may be indicated post-transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). The Emory Risk Score (ERS) is a validated predictive risk score of the need for a PPM post-TAVI using a balloon-expandable valve. Our objectives were to determine the validity of the ERS in our local TAVI population with both balloon-expandable and self-expanding valves and to identify additional electrocardiographic (ECG) parameters predictive of the need for a PPM post-TAVI. Methods Retrospective chart and electronic database reviews were performed to collect demographic and procedural information. Two expert readers reviewed all ECGs. Independent factors associated with PPM implantation were examined with multivariable logistic regression via a stepwise selection process with calculation of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to assess model discrimination. Results The overall PPM implantation rate was 11.7%; rates were 9% for the Sapien 3 valves, 10% for the Evolut Pro valves, and 17% for the Evolut R valves. The ERS was found to not be predictive of need for PPM post-TAVI for the entire cohort. Right bundle branch block was the only ERS parameter independently associated with new PPM implant (8.5% vs 25%, odds ratio = 3.59, P = 0.01). No additional ECG parameters met the criteria for statistical significance. Conclusions The poor predictive value of the ERS in determining the need for a PPM post-TAVI in our patient population suggests that further refinement of a formula (or risk-calculator) is warranted. Identification of a precise risk-calculator is likely to facilitate patient mobilization and reduce inpatient healthcare resource utilization.