Evaluation of the Implications of the Effect of Economic Recession on Good Governance in Nigeria under Buhari, 2015-2023

Drawing on the case study of the Buhari civilian administration (29 May 2015- 28 May 2023), this study explores the implications of recession for good governance within Nigeria’s democratic system. Using mixed methods, the quantitative survey data were collected from a total of 450 respondents in three political zones (150 in each zone), while the qualitative data were derived from nine in-depth interviews with relevant political office holders, scholars, community leaders, members of opposition parties, and civil society individuals (four per zone). Findings indicate that widespread hardship was a significant worsening issue (mean: 4.25, Rank 1st). Major drivers of the recession included the weakened purchasing power of the Naira (mean: 4.29), declining domestic food production due to insurgency (mean: 4.26, Rank 2nd), and falling global oil prices (mean: 4.19, Rank 3rd). Regression analysis revealed that there is a significant effect of economic recession on governance (F (1, 148) = 113.406, p < .05). The regression model accounted for 40.6% of the variance in the governance quality (R²=0.406), with a correlation of R=0.637. However, Pearson correlations showed no significant direct linear correlation between recession and multi-dimensional measures of good governance (r = -0.157, p > 0.05). The analysis concludes that while the economic crisis significantly impacted the government’s ability to protect welfare, it did not correlate directly with structural measures of good governance. This implies that Nigerian governance issues stem from deeper institutional crises, of which periodic economic recessions are merely symptomatic.