A Quantitative Risk Assessment for Bacillus Cereus Emetic Disease Associated With the Consumption of Chinese‐style Rice

A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was undertaken to model the risk of the Bacillus cereus emetic foodborne disease syndrome associated with the consumption of contaminated Chinese-style boiled or fried rice.Using Monte Carlo simulation, exposure variables were modeled for four different food storage scenarios, including holding at room temperature (20C), under optimal growth conditions (30C), under legal holding conditions (60C), and over a range 01 holding temperatures.Because human or animal feeding studies are not available for the B. cereus emetic syndrome, epidemiological data was substituted for more conventional dose-response data.Exposure and dose-response assessments were combined, predicting a cumulative estimate for the risk of emetic illness associated with the consumption of B. cereus-contaminated Chinese-style rice of 2. I3 x I Q', 5.50 x I& ', 6.80 x lU', and 6.1 1 x IQ'for the 60, 20, 30C, and overall handling scenarios, respectively.The QMRA revealed that the risk of illness was highly correlated with temperature abuse of cooked rice.