An informed decision framework for photovoltaic business models: viability, scalability, and risk analysis under uncertainty

The transition toward distributed energy systems has transformed users into active prosumers, creating investment decisions under technical, market, and regulatory uncertainty. This study develops an Informed Decision Framework (IDF) to optimize the selection of photovoltaic (PV) business models across infrastructure scales and ownership structures. The framework couples a 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation with an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) assessment of five transversal dimensions: Governance Stability, Administrative Efficiency, Regulatory Maturity, Grid Capacity, and Social Acceptance. Applied to five representative configurations (RES-DO, ECM-CSS, IND-DO, IND-TPO, and UPP-IPP) calibrated to Spanish market conditions, the IDF links the regional assessment to project-specific risk premiums to evaluate profitability, liquidity, and risk exposure. The results indicate that community-shared solar (ECM-CSS) achieved the highest modeled ROI (386.27%) and the fastest capital recovery among direct-ownership cases. In contrast, residential direct ownership (RES-DO) remained economically viable but was less resilient, showing slower capital recovery (PBP = 8.73 years) and greater relative dispersion. Third-party ownership (IND-TPO) revealed a structural risk asymmetry: the industrial offtaker faced a 17.4% probability of negative NPV under fixed-price contracts when grid tariffs declined. The IDF offers a context-sensitive, universally adaptable decision-support tool that can be recalibrated to align local institutional maturity with optimal business configurations.