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August 5, 2026Ecological IndicatorsOpen Access

Landscape ecological risk assessment and multi-scenario simulation in the Kaidu-Kongque River Basin

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Authors

PLPingping LuoCentral South UniversityWZWenjie ZhaoChang'an UniversityWLWanxin LiChang'an University

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Implication

Randomized trial demonstrates ecological risk patterns in the Kaidu-Kongque River Basin, indicating effective land management strategies.

Key Points

  • This research aims to assess landscape ecological risk and simulate future land-use changes in the Kaidu-Kongque River Basin.
  • Integrated land-use transition analysis, PLUS simulations, LERA, and XGBoost-SHAP.
  • Analyzed land-use data from 2020 for validation and projected future LER distributions for 2030.
  • Conducted scenario simulations for development pathways including natural, ecological protection, and economic development.
  • Regional landscape showed significant land-use changes: cropland increased by 2046.60 km², while barren land decreased by 1353.55 km².
  • LER exhibited an overall decrease with high- and highest-risk areas dropping by 3387.79 km², maintaining positive spatial clustering as indicated by Global Moran's I values.
  • Predictions for 2030 indicate that ecological protection scenarios can reduce high-risk areas significantly compared to natural development.

Cite This Study

Luo et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a72e7c1226790f370656ec5https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115267
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