Asymmetric Evolution and Multi-Scenario Projections of Landscape Ecological Risk in a China–North Korea Transboundary Basin Under Land-Use Change

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Transboundary river basins combine spatially continuous ecological processes with nationally differentiated land use, development intensity, and environmental governance, yet it remains unclear how these asymmetries shape landscape ecological risk (LER) and whether alternative near-term land-use pathways can substantially modify the shared risk pattern. Taking the Sino–DPRK transboundary area of the Tumen River Basin as a case study, we assessed land-use and LER changes in 2000, 2010, and 2020 using a landscape-pattern-based LER index, global and local spatial autocorrelation, the geodetector, and geographically weighted regression (GWR), and simulated 2030 land use and LER under natural development (NDS), cropland protection scenario (CPS), and ecological conservation (EPS) scenarios using the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. Basin-wide mean LER increased from 0.0604 in 2000 to 0.0662 in 2010 and to 0.0666 in 2020, with most of the increase occurring during 2000–2010. In 2020, mean LER was higher on the DPRK side than on the Chinese side (0.0701 vs. 0.0646), and the combined proportion of relatively high- and high-risk units reached 40.22% and 27.03%, respectively. LER showed persistent positive spatial autocorrelation, with Moran’s I values of 0.6393, 0.6237, and 0.6347, and 55, 38, and 44 cross-border H-H adjacent pairs identified in the three periods. Slope consistently showed the highest explanatory power (q = 0.799–0.921), while the explanatory power of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) increased from 0.097 to 0.318; distance to roads was the strongest socioeconomic proxy (q = 0.131–0.202). GWR further indicated significant spatial non-stationarity in several major environmental relationships. For 2030, mean LER changed by +0.69%, −0.13%, and +0.60% under the NDS, CPS, and EPS, respectively, indicating only limited near-term divergence among scenarios. These results reveal persistent cross-border asymmetry together with recurrent H-H adjacency in boundary valley sections and suggest that near-term land-use adjustment alone may have limited capacity to substantially restructure basin-wide LER. The findings provide a spatial basis for prioritizing cross-border monitoring and coordinated land-use management in recurrent high-risk boundary valley segments.