Key result
Household community structure strongly limits vaccine virus transmission to local community members, and ignoring it overestimates outbreak risk in terms of emergence probability, duration, and epidemic size.
Why the study?
It was unclear whether household community structure influences Sabin 2 vaccine virus transmission or is relevant for assessing circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 outbreak risk following mass vaccination campaigns.
Does household community structure influence Sabin 2 polio vaccine virus transmission and cVDPV2 outbreak risk?
Does household community structure influence Sabin 2 polio vaccine virus transmission and cVDPV2 outbreak risk?
Absolute Event Rate: 34.9% vs 85.9%
Incorporating household community structure into transmission models is essential, as ignoring it overestimates the risk, duration, and size of cVDPV2 outbreaks following Sabin 2 OPV campaigns.
Accurate cVDPV2 forecasting models are needed to guide OPV campaign decisions; leaves open validated tools for outbreak risk prediction.
Since the global withdrawal of Sabin 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) from routine immunization, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) has reported multiple circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreaks. cVDPV2 outbreaks are controlled with mass Sabin 2 OPV vaccination campaigns, which carry a small but serious risk of seeding future cVDPV2 outbreaks. Accurate forecasting models are essential for quantifying current and future cVDPV2 outbreak risk following Sabin 2 OPV campaigns, but it is unclear whether household community structure influences vaccine virus transmission or is relevant for assessing cVDPV2 outbreak risk. Here, we developed an agent-based model of Sabin 2 vaccine transmission to assess the role of household community structure on vaccine virus transmission following a mass OPV campaign performed in Matlab, Bangladesh. Household community structure strongly limits vaccine virus transmission to local community members and ignoring it overestimates outbreak risk in terms of emergence probability, duration, and epidemic size.
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Famulare et al. (2020) studied Poliovirus (Sabin 2 vaccine virus transmission) (n=83,000). Household community structure (multiscale model) vs. Mass action model was evaluated on Endemic transmission 10 years after vaccination cessation following cVDPV2 importation. Household community structure strongly limits vaccine virus transmission to local community members, and ignoring it overestimates outbreak risk in terms of emergence probability, duration, and epidemic size.