Policy uncertainty and firm-level investment: evidence from public-private partnership market in China

This paper focuses on the subfield of Public–Private Partnership (PPP), and explores the relationship between policy uncertainty and firm-level investment. Based on the analysis of 905 central-level documents, one novel contribution of this paper is to construct an index of PPP policy uncertainty. We find evidence supporting that the gambling between central government departments is the main cause of policy uncertainty, which further leads to less investment by firms. Compared with other traditional indexes, the construction based upon policy text sheds light on risk management.