Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Models in Haiti: Implications for Primary Prevention in Low-Middle Income Countries

Background Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are rapidly increasing in low-middle income countries (LMICs). Accurate risk assessment is essential to reduce premature CVD by targeting primary prevention and risk factor treatment among high-risk groups. Available CVD risk prediction models are built on predominantly Caucasian, high-income country populations, and have not been evaluated in LMIC populations. Objective To compare the predicted 10-year risk of CVD and identify high-risk groups for targeted prevention and treatment in Haiti. Methods We used cross-sectional data within the Haiti CVD Cohort Study, including 653 adults ≥ 40 years without known history of CVD and with complete data. Six CVD risk prediction models were compared: pooled cohort equations (PCE), adjusted PCE with updated cohorts, Framingham CVD Lipids, Framingham CVD Body Mass Index (BMI), WHO Lipids, and WHO BMI. Risk factors were measured during clinical exams. Primary outcome was continuous and categorical predicted 10-year CVD risk. Secondary outcome was statin eligibility. Results Seventy percent were female, 65.5% lived on a daily income of ≤1 USD, 57.0% had hypertension, 14.5% had hypercholesterolemia, 9.3% had diabetes mellitus, 5.5% were current smokers, and 2.0% had HIV. Predicted 10-year CVD risk ranged from 3.9% in adjusted PCE (IQR 1.7-8.4) to 9.8% in Framingham-BMI (IQR 5.0-17.8), and Spearman rank correlation coefficients ranged from 0.87 to 0.98. The percent of the cohort categorized as high risk using the uniform threshold of 10-year CVD risk ≥ 7.5% ranged from 28.8% in the adjusted PCE model to 62.0% in the Framingham-BMI model (χ 2 = 331, p value < 0.001). Statin eligibility also varied widely. Conclusions In the Haiti CVD Cohort, there was substantial variation in the proportion identified as high-risk and statin eligible using existing models, leading to very different treatment recommendations and public health implications depending on which prediction model is chosen. There is a need to design and validate CVD risk prediction tools for low-middle income countries that include locally relevant risk factors. Trial registration clinicaltrials.gov NCT03892265