Key result
Cuban CVD risk prediction model accurately predicts 10-year CVD mortality with ~0.82 discrimination.
Why the study?
Cuba lacks population-specific tools to estimate cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk despite a substantial burden of CVD, and a locally derived model was needed to estimate 10-year absolute CVD mortality risk.
Cohort (n=119,014)
Provides the first internally validated, population-specific 10-year CVD mortality risk prediction model for the Cuban population with strong discrimination (c-statistic 0.815) to guide primary prevention.
Background Cuba lacks population-specific tools to estimate cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, despite a substantial burden of CVD. A locally derived model could improve risk stratification and support prevention strategies tailored to the Cuban context. Objectives To develop and internally validate a model estimating 10-year absolute CVD mortality risk in the Cuban population. Methods We analyzed 119,014 adults without prior CVD from the Cuba Prospective Study (n=146,556). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate 10-year CVD mortality risk. Candidate predictors included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, smoking, body mass index, alcohol consumption, and educational level. Backward elimination guided variable selection. Model performance was assessed through discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration. Predicted survival trajectories from age 40 to 80 were used to estimate absolute risk. Results Over 1.16 million person-years of follow-up, 2,999 CVD deaths occurred. Age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, smoking, and education remained independently associated with CVD mortality. The model showed strong discrimination (c-statistic 0.815) and good calibration. Conclusions We developed and internally validated a CVD risk score tailored to Cuba, providing a population-specific tool to estimate 10-year absolute CVD mortality risk and support primary prevention decision-making.
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Rojas et al. (2026) conducted a cohort in Cardiovascular disease risk (primary prevention) (n=119,014). Cuban cardiovascular disease risk prediction model (age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, smoking, education) was evaluated on 10-year cardiovascular disease mortality (c-statistic 0.815). A locally derived Cuban CVD risk prediction model demonstrated strong discrimination (c-statistic 0.815) and good calibration for 10-year CVD mortality (2,999 deaths).
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