Spatiotemporal evolution and simulation optimization of rural settlements in Hotan Prefecture, China: A three-dimensional perspective

The exploration of the evolutionary process and influence mechanism of rural settlements has significant implications for the promotion of sustainable rural development. However, existing research has yet to employ a three-dimensional perspective that organically combines scale, space, and morphology. In view of this, using Hotan Prefecture of China as the study area, we constructed a three-dimensional analysis framework to explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of rural settlements from 2000 to 2020 through landscape pattern indices, kernel density analysis, and GeoDetector. Furthermore, the Geographical Simulation and Optimization System–Future Land Use Simulation (GeoSOS–FLUS) model was utilized to predict various scenarios affecting rural settlements in 2030. This study reveals that scale dynamics followed a clear pattern: values dropped sharply and then stabilized alongside ongoing growth. Spatial patterns showed clustering along rivers and transport corridors, with density gradients radiating outward. Morphological evolution is marked by gradual patch regularization and stabilized spatial configuration. GeoDetector analysis identified hydrological accessibility and cropland proximity as primary spatial determinants of rural settlements, demonstrating significant synergistic effects ( q -value=0.457). Scenario projections yielded divergent outcomes: under the natural development scenario, rural settlements are projected to expand by 5.490% relative to 2020, with this expansion mainly driven by cropland encroachment and unused land development. In contrast, the urban–rural integration development scenario reveals a significantly lower predicted growth rate. Rural settlements are expected to adopt a more compact and clustered spatial layout. Under the cropland production development scenario, conversions of cropland to built-up land are constrained, substantially curbing the expansion rate of rural settlements. In summary, this study intends to offer scientific support for optimizing the spatial layout of rural settlements in arid oasis regions and advancing rural revitalization strategies.