Spatial evolutions and trends of the coupling coordinated development of environment–economy–tourism in China

Against the backdrop of China’s strategic commitment to sustainable development, understanding the synergistic dynamics among ecological environment (EE), economic development (ED), and tourism industry (TI) at the provincial level is critical, yet this topic remains underexplored. To address this gap, this study constructs a comprehensive environment–economy–tourism (EET) evaluation framework utilizing panel data from 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions of China (excluding Hong Kong Special Administration Region, Macao Special Administration Region, and Taiwan Province due to missing data) from 2003 to 2022. Methodologically, this study integrates the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model to quantify subsystem interactions, spatial econometric models to identify driving factors and spatial effects, and the Grey Model(1,1) to forecast future trajectories. Findings indicate a marked improvement in the provincial CCD of the EET system over time, showing an overall upward trajectory toward improved coordination. A distinct spatial gradient emerges, with higher CCD in the eastern China and lower CCD in the western China. Spatial effects constitute a dominant mechanism, with ED and TI serving as primary drivers. Projections suggest a continued upward trend in CCD in the coming years (2023–2030). Overall, this study provides valuable empirical evidence and an integrated analytical framework to support spatially differentiated policy design and advance balanced and sustainable regional development in China.