Assessing supply–demand spatial mismatch of cultural ecosystem services in China’s national protected areas

Cultural ecosystem services (CESs) represent a crucial link in enhancing public well-being through the provision of ecological products. A scientific understanding of CESs characteristics at the national scale is essential for coordinating the integrated and sustainable development of society, economy, and nature, as well as for advancing ecological civilization. However, systematic evaluation methods that couple natural geography with socio-economic dynamics remain underdeveloped. This study, from a supply–demand perspective, constructs a CESs potential evaluation framework encompassing five key dimensions: historical, aesthetic, scientific, health-related, and recreational. By employing both supply–demand matching degree and supply–demand coordination degree models, the study conducts an empirical assessment of CESs across 581 national protected areas within 31 provincial-level administrative units in China. Key findings include: 1) The CESs supply capacity in 159 protected areas and the demand capacity in 187 protected areas exhibit statistically significant spatial clustering; 2) Provincial-level CESs supply potential exhibits multi-dimensional non-equilibrium characteristics, closely linked to differences in resource endowments and development strategies; 3) Demand potential displays a clear east–west gradient, with stronger demand concentrated in eastern regions; 4) Pronounced spatial mismatches exist between supply and demand, and substantial regional disparities are observed in coordination levels, highlighting the urgent need for differentiated governance strategies. This research offers a theoretical foundation and empirical evidence to support regionally tailored CESs governance and spatial optimization in protected areas.