Wealth on ice and track? A comparative analysis of structural determinants of Olympic success

This study investigates the macro-structural determinants of Olympic success by analysing the relationships between GDP per capita, population size, and historical legacy across both Summer and Winter Olympic Games from 1992 to 2024. Drawing on resource-based, institutional, and path-dependency theoretical frameworks, the study distinguishes analytically between Olympic formats and employs both bivariate correlation and multivariate regression methods. The findings challenge the assumption that economic wealth alone drives Olympic success. While GDP per capita is significantly associated with medal counts in Winter Games, its explanatory power is inconsistent elsewhere. Population size emerges as a more robust predictor, particularly for Summer Games, but is still insufficient to explain performance in isolation. The most consistent and powerful determinant across all models is historical performance, as captured by the all-time Olympic medal table, underscoring the cumulative and institutional nature of sporting dominance. These results highlight the need to move beyond static structural models and towards a more dynamic, context-sensitive understanding of global sport hierarchies.