This study of 248 adolescents who had been in a Serious Offender Program in the Arkansas Division of Youth Serivces (DYS) was designed to examine the relative predictiveness of (a) a common risk assessment tool, (b) a battery of psychological tests, and (c) a combination of demographic and theoretical factors. The criterion outcome or measure of recidivism was entry into the Arkansas correctional system for adults within a two-year follow-up period. Logistic regression procedures indicate that the following are significant predictors (in order of predictiveness): prior commitments to DYS, male, gang members, carry weapons, peers present during committing of-fense(s), age of first offense, age first used illicit drugs, persons of color, those who had been neglected or abused, youth from larger families, higher scores on the chemical abuse scale, higer scores on alienation, mother used illicit drugs, those who scored high on social maladjustment, more siblings, youth from families where one biological parent was not in the home most of the time, father used illicit drugs, high score on aggression scale, and high MMPI pd subscale scores. The risk assessment instrument used by the Arkansas DYS did not predict recidivism. Intervention implications of the study are discussed.
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Benda et al. (2001) studied this question.