The Kurdistan Referendum Movement: Political Opportunity Structures and National Identity

This article examines the lack of mass mobilization by Iraqi Kurds to establish an independent Kurdistan. It argues that while the outcome of an unofficial January 2005 referendum – in which 98 per cent of Kurds supported independence – was a clear expression of their will, the political opportunity structures within which the Kurdistan Referendum Movement operates are closed to the formation of a mass-based social movement. Utilizing data from a survey of Kurdish elites and activists, as well as follow-up interviews, this analysis provides insights into the future of democracy in Iraq and the value of political opportunity theory in understanding mass mobilization.