Homicide planning by Organized Crime Groups in Sweden

In recent years, homicides linked to organized criminal groups (OCGs) in Sweden have increased sharply, coinciding with changes in their modus operandi. Despite growing concern in Sweden and neighbouring Scandinavian countries about the spread of lethal violence, the processes through which such homicides are organized and executed remain underexplored. This study aims to examine how homicides are planned within OCG-contexts. Drawing on 39 Swedish court cases containing evidence from encrypted communication platforms (EncroChat, SkyECC, and ANOM), the study codes the behaviour of individual actors in each case based on chat data to capture organizational dynamics using a crime script analysis. The cases are compared to identify recurring patterns in planning processes. The findings reveal increasingly compartmentalized forms of organization, involving risk mitigation strategies and the use of external actors to facilitate violence. These results point to broader transformations in organized crime in the Nordic region, including increasing marketization and specialization of criminal activities.