Nomogram for predicting major bleeding after off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this investigation is to develop a novel nomogram for predicting major bleeding following off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). METHODS: Between January 2012 and December 2022, 541 patients who underwent off-pump isolated primary CABG were included in a retrospective analysis. The primary outcome measure after off-pump CABG was major bleeding. Based on the outcomes of a multivariate analysis, nomograms were constructed. Using receiver operating characteristic analysis and calibration, the predictive accuracy of the nomograms was assessed. Using decision curve analysis (DCA), the clinical benefit of the nomograms was determined. RESULTS: We categorized 399 and 142 patients in the "no major bleeding group" and "major bleeding group", respectively. Age (odds ratio (OR) 1.038; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.009-1.068; p = 0.009), body mass index (OR 0.913; 95% CI 0.849-0.982; p = 0.014), hemoglobin (OR 0.958; 95% CI 0.945-0.971; p < 0.001), sodium (OR 0.873; 95% CI 0.807-0.945; p = 0.001), blood urea nitrogen (OR 1.198; 95% CI 1.073-1.338; p = 0.001), and operation time (OR 1.012; 95% CI 1.008-1.017; p < 0.001) were independent predictors for major bleeding after off-pump CABG. The model based on independent predictors exhibited excellent discrimination and calibration, with good agreement between actual and nomogram-estimated probabilities of generalization. DCA demonstrated that nomogram-assisted decisions have a greater positive benefit than treating all patients or none. CONCLUSIONS: The plotted nomogram accurately predicted major bleeding outcomes following off-pump CABG and may therefore contribute to clinical decision-making, patient treatment, and consultation services.