Key result
Patients in the highest tertile of the OSR HF Risk Score had a increased risk of cardiac cause admission compared to the lowest tertile over 5 years.
Why the study?
Most models for outcome prediction in heart failure are under-utilized because they are complex or include non-routine clinical variables, warranting a score using only easily obtainable parameters.
Does the OSR HF Risk Score predict 5-year mortality and hospitalizations in outpatients with stable HFrEF?
Cohort (n=701)
Does the OSR HF Risk Score predict 5-year mortality and hospitalizations in outpatients with stable HFrEF?
The OSR HF Risk Score is a simple clinical tool using five routine variables that can predict 5-year mortality and hospitalization risk in outpatients with stable HFrEF.
Answers are grounded in this paper and cite their sources.
May aid HF risk stratification; hypothesis-generating for score-guided interventions pending prospective trials.
BACKGROUND: Most models for outcome prediction in heart failure are under-utilized because complex or including non-routine clinical use variables. We aimed to develop a prognostic score for patients with stable heart failure, including only easily obtainable parameters. METHODS: In 376 outpatients with heart failure (ejection fraction ≤40%), twelve variables were individually correlated with 5-year mortality. Those resulted significant predictors of cardiac and overall mortality were used to obtain a risk score. It was validated on a different sample of 325 patients previously enrolled in other clinical studies, according to tertiles of score. RESULTS: Previous acute decompensated heart failure, atrial fibrillation, ejection fraction <30%, not-taking beta-blockers, chronic renal failure were the variables included in the final model. There was a significant difference in 5-year cardiac (P=0.004) and all-cause (P=0.003) mortality risk. Compared to the first tertile of the score, the second tertile and the third tertile had an increasing risk for cardiac cause admission (respectively, HR: 2.7; 95% CI: 1.5-4.9 and HR: 3.2; 95% CI: 1.7-6.1) and for heart failure worsening hospitalization (HR:4.3; 95% CI: 1.3-14.5 and HR: 3.8; 95% CI: 1.03-14.1) as well as the third tertile (respectively, HR:3.2; 95% CI: 1.7-6.1 and HR:3.8; 95% CI: 1.03-14.1.). CONCLUSIONS: Our prognostic model, named OSR HF Risk Score, is a simple, quick, inexpensive tool for predicting patient outcome in 5 years. It might be used as an adjunctive tool in outpatients evaluation alongside more complex scores.
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Loiacono et al. (2019) conducted a cohort in Heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (n=701). OSR HF Risk Score (highest tertile) vs. Lowest tertile of the OSR HF Risk Score was evaluated on Cardiac cause admission (HR 3.2, 95% CI 1.7-6.1). Patients in the highest tertile of the OSR HF Risk Score had a increased risk of cardiac cause admission compared to the lowest tertile over 5 years.
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