Estimative rationality: how does estimative information support emergency decision-making? A qualitative comparative analysis based on 25 cases

Introduction Information completeness is crucial to decision-making. However, emergency decision-making often takes place in contexts characterized by highly incomplete information and stringent time constraints, requiring decision systems to act rapidly amid large volumes of unverified information. While existing research has largely addressed this issue from the perspectives of insufficient or distorted information, less attention has been given to the institutionalized operation of imprecise information in emergency governance. Methods Drawing on 25 emergency response cases, this study examines how estimative information is procedurally produced and integrated into emergency decision-making. Using the fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis method, multiple configurations of conditions that contribute to high adaptive effectiveness in emergency decision-making are identified. Results The findings show that the initial reporting phase relies on leadership or space for autonomous adaptation; the subsequent reporting phase sustains stable implementation through the synergy of organizational and environmental conditions; and the final verification phase centers on learning capacity to consolidate experience. Across all phases, the social environment consistently plays a supportive role. Discussion Emergency decision-making does not achieve rationality by eliminating uncertainty, but through a phased mechanism of “initiation-coordination-correction” that institutionalizes and dynamically adjusts estimative information. This study illuminates adaptive adjustment in emergency decision-making and provides theoretical insights into how effective decisions can be made.