From Warning to Failure: Intelligence Fragmentation and the Case for Systematic Reform in Sri Lanka

Following the decisive end of its civil war in 2009, Sri Lanka’s intelligence infrastructure shifted from countering the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) toward a domestic security model oriented to regime stability rather than emerging transnational threats. This article conceptualizes the 2019 Easter Sunday attacks as a compound intelligence failure spanning multiple stages of the intelligence cycle, including analysis, dissemination, inter-agency fusion, and executive response. Drawing on commission reports and public inquiries, the analysis traces breakdowns in information sharing, inter-agency coordination, and political interference, arguing that these produced systemic vulnerabilities. It then extends the analysis to the post-2022 environment defined by Indian Ocean geopolitical competition, severe economic crisis, and the Aragalaya protest movement. The article argues that the failure to enact comprehensive intelligence reform after 2019 has left Sri Lanka’s national security apparatus structurally exposed to new threats, including maritime crime, financial espionage, and economically driven political destabilization. The findings underscore the need to institutionalize professional intelligence practices, including an Intelligence Act and statutory protection from political interference, to move Sri Lanka’s agencies from a reactive, military-centric culture toward a proactive, foresight-driven framework capable of supporting stable domestic and foreign policy during a period of acute national fragility.