Structural mechanisms of rural ecotourism development capacity in metropolitan areas under the “1–2 h Commuting Circle”

Rural areas within metropolitan regions are increasingly serving as pivotal spaces for urban residents’ “micro-vacations.” However, under the constraint of the “1–2 hour commuting circle,” the development capacity of rural ecotourism is shaped by the coupling of multiple dimensions, while its internal structure and transmission mechanisms remain insufficiently theorized. This study constructs a comprehensive evaluation framework encompassing resource endowments, infrastructure, product systems, operational management, and market demand. By innovatively integrating the DEMATEL–ISM–MICMAC approach and drawing on data from 145 experts, it conducts coupled modeling and path analysis to examine the causal intensity, hierarchical configuration, and driving attributes of key influencing factors. The findings identify a cluster of deep-level drivers centered on “high-frequency revisit word-of-mouth,” confirming the initiating role of demand-side forces in mobilizing urban capital flows to rural areas and facilitating cultural restructuring. Accordingly, a sustainable development pathway is proposed, characterized by “reputation-driven attraction, capital empowerment, cultural revitalization, and community co-governance.” This study not only extends the theoretical boundaries of short-distance tourism dynamics but also advances methodological integration by simultaneously capturing causal attributes and hierarchical relationships, thereby providing a scientific basis for identifying leverage points in rural tourism development and promoting high-quality urban–rural spatial integration.