The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960 in the aftermath of Partition, has long been an emblem of robust transboundary water cooperation between India and Pakistan. It survived wars and recurring conflict through its well-organised allocation of the Indus River system. In April 2025, however, India placed the treaty “in abeyance” following a fatal terrorist attack in Pahalgam. The IWT is therefore no longer a purely technical accord. It has become a source of geopolitical bargaining power, national identity, and rhetorical securitisation. This essay explores the treaty’s image in the public imagination through academic commentary, political discourse, and media reporting, including critical voices within Pakistan that question the treaty’s equity and long-term sustainability. It traces a transition from stability to apparent vulnerability under the combined pressures of climate change, population growth, and mounting bilateral tension. The analysis identifies points of convergence, such as the treaty’s underused ecological and adaptive governance provisions, and points of divergence, such as competing framings of “water terrorism” and strategic necessity. A dedicated section asks whether the treaty’s fixed allocations can survive climate change. The essay closes with three targeted recommendations and examines whether the IWT can move beyond coercion to help create common regional futures.
Nagabhatla et al. (2026) studied this question.