The Digital Maturity Paradox: The Divergent Impact of Network Readiness and FDI Across Development Tiers

Contemporary economic growth trajectories are characterized by accelerating digital integration. However, the digital infrastructure required to accelerate growth remains unevenly distributed across development tiers. This study examines a “Digital Maturity Paradox” using a cross-sectional dataset of 121 countries, stratified into developing N=76 and developed N=45 cohorts. Statistically validated via the Chow Breakpoint Method F=11.91; p<0.01, the study demonstrates that growth drivers vary significantly based on developmental maturity. The findings indicate that digitalization and foreign direct investment (FDI) serve as primary catalysts for developing countries, supporting the “Leapfrogging Hypothesis” with statistically significant coefficients (β=1.106, p<0.01 and β=0.246, p<0.05, respectively). Conversely, a “productivity paradox” emerges within the developed cohort, where the marginal returns of digitalization saturate and turn negative (β=−0.734, p<0.10), and FDI becomes statistically insignificant. Sensitivity analysis isolating developed economies by excluding extreme maritime financial hubs N=43 confirms that the explanatory power of traditional vectors remains structurally compressed in the Global North (R-squared < 2%), mathematically solidifying the “Fitness Gap” against baseline model (N = 45, Adjusted R-squared = 1.61%). These findings suggest that while the traditional, infrastructure-led growth rules still govern the Global South, the Global North needs to transition toward Artificial Intelligence-driven total factor productivity to sustain economic growth.