The Role of the Creative Economy in Thailand’s Sustainable Growth Path: A Hybrid Economic Modeling Perspective

The creative economy has become an important driver of innovation and sustainable economic growth, yet evidence on its economy-wide and regional effects remains limited. This study evaluates Thailand’s 2009 Creative Economy Policy by integrating a Bayesian Difference-in-Differences (B-DID) model with a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (Dynamic CGE) model. The B-DID model estimates a posterior mean treatment effect of approximately 7.22% on GDP; however, the 95% Bayesian credible interval includes zero, indicating inconclusive statistical evidence. The Dynamic CGE model uses a 7.224% Total Factor Productivity (TFP) shock as a benchmark calibration scenario rather than a direct conversion of GDP growth. National simulations indicate increases in GDP, household income, government revenue, investment, capital stock, sectoral output, and consumption, while trade patterns remain broadly unchanged. Regional simulations reveal different responses under TFP shocks ranging from 0% to 11%, with Southern Thailand showing the strongest and most sustained responses, followed by Central, Northern, and Northeastern Thailand, respectively. These findings highlight the importance of regional economic structures and support place-based strategies alongside national creative economy policies. Overall, this study demonstrates the value of integrating empirical policy estimation with Dynamic CGE simulations to assess economy-wide and regional policy effects.