Environmental Variability and Chlorophyll-a Are Associated with Immature Whale Shark Surface Sightings in Nosy Be, Madagascar

Whale shark aggregations in tropical coastal systems are linked to environmental variability and prey dynamics, yet the drivers of surface sightings remain poorly understood. In Nosy Be, Madagascar, a seasonal aggregation of immature whale sharks occurs within a productive coastal ecosystem. This study investigated the relationship between daily environmental conditions and whale shark surface sighting probability while accounting for heterogeneous sampling effort. Boat-based survey data collected from 2019 to 2025 were aggregated by sampling day, and daily whale shark surface sighting probability was analysed using a bias-reduced grouped binomial Generalized Linear Model. Environmental covariates included sea surface temperature, sea surface chlorophyll-a concentration, cloud cover, wind speed, and precipitation, while El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability was assessed as an interannual climatic descriptor. Using data from 103 recorded whale shark surface sightings, chlorophyll-a emerged as the strongest predictor, showing a positive association with daily sighting probability, whereas other environmental variables exhibited weaker and inconsistent effects. These findings suggest that whale shark surface sightings in Nosy Be are primarily associated with prey aggregation processes driven by local productivity rather than with direct responses to local physical environmental conditions. By integrating environmental variability and sampling effort into ecological models, this study provides insights into whale shark habitat use and supports ecosystem-based management of sustainable whale shark tourism in tropical coastal ecosystems.