Key result
Enlarging the surveillance zones from 10 to 15 km combined with pre-emptive depopulation over a 1-km radius around detected herds reduced the median total costs of a simulated FMD epidemic by €202 million compared to the basic control strategy.
Effect estimate: Reduction of €202 million (95% CI 755-1168)
Absolute Event Rate: 885% vs 1087%
p-value: p=<0.05
In a simulated FMD outbreak in Denmark, combining pre-emptive depopulation with an enlarged surveillance zone of 15 km minimized total economic costs.
May inform FMD control modeling; leaves open real-world validation before policy adoption.
An epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in a FMD-free country with large exports of livestock and livestock products would result in profound economic damage. This could be reduced by rapid and efficient control of the disease spread. The objectives of this study were to estimate the economic impact of a hypothetical FMD outbreak in Denmark based on changes to the economic assumptions of the model, and to investigate whether the control of an FMD epidemic can be improved by combining the enlargement of protection or surveillance zones with pre-emptive depopulation or emergency vaccination. The stochastic spatial simulation model DTU-DADS was used to simulate the spread of FMD in Denmark. The control strategies were the basic EU and Danish strategy, pre-emptive depopulation, suppressive or protective vaccination, enlarging protection or surveillance zones, and a combination of pre-emptive depopulation or emergency vaccination with enlarged protection or surveillance zones. Herds are detected either based on basic detection through the appearance of clinical signs, or as a result of surveillance in the control zones. The economic analyses consisted of direct costs and export losses. Sensitivity analysis was performed on uncertain and potentially influential input parameters. Enlarging the surveillance zones from 10 to 15 km, combined with pre-emptive depopulation over a 1-km radius around detected herds resulted in the lowest total costs. This was still the case even when the different input parameters were changed in the sensitivity analysis. Changing the resources for clinical surveillance did not affect the epidemic consequences. In conclusion, an FMD epidemic in Denmark would have a larger economic impact on the agricultural sector than previously anticipated. Furthermore, the control of a potential FMD outbreak in Denmark may be improved by combining pre-emptive depopulation with an enlarged protection or surveillance zone.
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Halasa et al. (2015) studied Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Enlarging surveillance zones to 15 km combined with pre-emptive depopulation (Dep10H-SZ15) vs. Basic EU and Danish control strategy was evaluated on Total costs of the epidemic (in millions of Euros) (Reduction of €202 million, 95% CI 755-1168, p=<0.05). Enlarging the surveillance zones from 10 to 15 km combined with pre-emptive depopulation over a 1-km radius around detected herds reduced the median total costs of a simulated FMD epidemic by €202 million compared to the basic control strategy.
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